Biotech 2008 B

BDM - BioDiem Ltd.
This company listed in January 2004. It had been seeking listing for some time and, with an annual revenue in 2003 of $5.3 million and a slight profit, the time was ripe. In the year following listing, shares fell 70%, revenues fell and profitability disappeared. In the first half of 2005, there was a 100% increase in price (25% for all of 2005) based on optimism for the future, improving financials and concerns about the bird flu problem in Asia. This gain was more than lost with a 69% loss in 2006. The market cap in July 2006 of $7 million was borderline despite the deal with Akzo, the first three payments associated with this, investor interest in companies developing influenza vaccines and treatments and possible applications in the animal feed additive area. However the announcement of an agreement with the Centers for Disease Control at the end of August 2006 resulted in a temporary jump in prices which fell 62%overall in 2006 and further in 2007 with a change of Managing Director. There has been some recovery with the injection of funds in October 2007, although early clinical trial results for one of BioDiem's products have not been encouraging. Thecompany has a market cap of $6 million (down 32% in 2007 and down 62% in 2008). There is upside potential with this company but this will depend on speed of commercialisation which has been supported by the fourth and fifth milestone payments from Akzo. (21/11/08)

BIT - Biotron Ltd.
When Biotron listed seven years ago, it was hard to determine the justification for listing. Following listing, prices dropped 50%, bottoming at 17¢ in July 2004 then bouncing to over 30¢ before gradually declining to around 13¢ with three recent speculative rises above 30¢ due to research findings on potential anti-influenza and anti-HIV products. The company now has a market cap of $14 million which is a little high but prices may fall again as the company has not yet indicated any substance. However in early 2007, prices which were level in 2006 spiked up 60% as a result of speculation over early laboratory results with one of Biotron's compounds but by year's end were down 22%. Shares have oscillated wildly in 2008 and a recent jump is as yet unexplained (down 28%). (12/11/08)

BLS - Biolayer Corporation Ltd .
Previously called SSH Medical, a medical equipment development company, which has been restructured and has acquired Queensland biotechnology company Bio-Layer. The latter company had already licensed its technology to a US diagnostics company and is working with a number of other international and local companies on developing new diagnostic products. Company has market value of $5 million following recent substantial fund raising (down 57% in 2006, down 65% in 2007 and down 33% in 2008). A significant increase in revenues and reduction in losses suggests that company may be undervalued at this stage but the company needs to improve its cash position for survival and this has been done with the recent fund raising. (27/10/08)

BLT - Benitec Ltd.
Following listing of the company in August 2002, the share price grew from 25¢ to over $1 by September 2003. The technology works in the laboratory, but there has been some question as to its practicality in the field. As a result, we considered that the highest market cap of the company of $80 million was too high for a technology at such an early stage and we expected prices to fall. It was therefore not surprising that shares fell 50% in 2004, a further 70% in 2005 and 49% in 2006 with a late recovery associated with new prominent shareholders. This recovery has carried over into 2007 with a 65% speculative jump associated with licensing of Benitec technology via Sigma Aldrich to Pfizer and fund raising (up 22% in 2007 following favourable court decision). There has been a further temporary speculative jump in 2008 associated with related parties but prices are now down 55% in 2008. The current market cap of $14 million (following fund raising and speculation) is reasonable with the falls in 2005 and 2006 and the closure of US operations to cut costs. The company has gained licensing opportunities and the investment by companies like Promega offers some blue sky potential. (7/11/08)

BNE - Bone Medical Ltd.
Company previously performing airborne geophysical surveys reached agreement in June 2004 to merge with UK-based biopharmaceutical development company Bone Limited which is developing oral delivery of calcitonin. Following the merger, the company relisted in September at a premium of 25% over the restructure price. This company was promising much and as a result there were expectations pushing up the share price. However there was a marked drop in prices in March and May 2005 to 50% below the launch price. Overall, prices fell and partly recovered in 2005 (down 44%) and fell 52% again in 2006 with erratic price shifts. There was an 83% recovery in 2007 associated with increased expectations for the company's TNF regulator product under preclinical tests. However the sudden oscillation in share prices in June was not explained. Prices rose 95% in 2007 but fell 23% in 2008. The current market cap of $25 million is high following capital raisings. There remains uncertainty about the future with further speculation likely. (8/11/08)

BNO - Bionomics Ltd.
The share price of the company dropped to a low of 20¢ at the end of July 2004 then increased 50% up to the end of November 2004 due to a strong push to have alliances in the US and Europe, but retreated to the 20¢ level since then, despite the merger with Iliad Chemicals. Following the merger, associated capital raising and recent announcements of licensing arrangements, there has been some price oscillation. We expected share prices to remain at around these levels or increase if further alliances with the US and Europe could be built. In the longer term, the company will need to demonstrate significantly increased revenues (gradually occurring) and eventually profitability. There were no major changes in prices in 2006 (up 4%) but with the announcement of a new CRC for Cancer Therapy which would be closely associated with Bionomics, there was a jump in early 2007 followed up by new candidate drugs in the pipeline (up 79% in 2007). There has been a fall and recovery in 2008 (down 38%). The company has a market cap of $61 million which is reasonable. (19/11/08)

BOD - BioMD Ltd.
Yet another safety syringe developer listed in March 2004 without, in our view, sufficient justification. As a result, there was a steady decline in the first year followed by temporary speculative rises associated with the diversification into Celxcel, a tissue engineering company, in late 2005 and again in August 2006 with early laboratory results by Celxcel. This speculation raised prices 50% in early 2006 following a 47% fall in 2005. There was a further speculative rise in late 2006 which continued over into 2007 (shares up 38% in 2006 and a further jump up 45% in early 2007 but down 9% overall in 2007). The developments in Celxcel are very early stage and the current market cap of $5 million is fair (down 40% in 2008). (15/11/08)

BOS - Biosignal Ltd.
Biosignal listed in April 2004 at a premium of 100% over the stock price, although prices have now fallen below par. The company is promising much, and has commenced evaluation trials with a number of potential customers in severall sectors without commercial outcome so far. Some problems have been encountered with the application of the technology to contact lenses. The current market value of $4 million following a recent fund raising is vulnerable and has recently fallen due to lack of continuing collaboration with Ciba and could fall further before commercialisation starts. There has been a 42% decline in 2005, an 8% decline in 2006 partly supported by positive results and additional investment and a fall followed by a recovery in 2007 (up 6%) associated with positive test results promising new applications. There has been an 83% fall so far in 2008 with several potential deals not proceeding. (7/11/08)

BPH - BioPharmica Ltd.
Biotechnology investment vehicle listed in August 2004 before significant turnover had been achieved and prices fell 10% shortly after listing. However, the company was astute in signing on projects following listing and prices were initially maintained around the listing price. However, in 2005 up to mid December, prices fell 64% and this provided an element of significant uncertainty for 2006. In December 2005, the announcement of a new diagnostic test resulted in a quadrupling of prices followed by a gradual decline over the next six months with some subsequent recovery due to announcement of collaboration with GE Healthcare. Shares fell 58% in 2006 and there was a small temporary recovery in 2007 with a further 100% jump in June with announcement of the intention to spin out Cortical Dynamics but this has now fallen back to a market cap of $2 million (down 26% in 2007 and 69% in 2008) with a recent unexplained precipitous drop. (7/11/08)

BPO - Bioprospect Ltd.
Since its listing in Jan. 2001, BPO had not met expectations and the share price had continually fallen finishing at 5¢ in March 2003. Subsequently, there was some recovery, probably supported by diversification to improve short term revenues, but the price again fell, 50% in the first six months of 2004. The market cap of $7 million in June 2004 indicated its borderline position and there appeared to be little to support any price increase. However, the 250% increase in July associated with an announcement on the effectiveness of a termiticide provided hope. Since then prices gradually declined towards the 1¢ level with a 72% decline in 2005 and a further 9% fall in 2006. There was a 105% recovery in 2007 associated with the deal with Solagran on development of BioEffectives for the animal health sector. However since July 2007, there has been a further gradual decline in price due to lack of noticeable progress (down 50%). The company now has a market cap of $9 million (following recent capital raising providing cash reserves of $3.9 million) and the need to push commercialisation quickly appears now to be focused on BioEffectives. Down 56% in 2008 as a result of the fall out of the Opes Prime collapse. Proposal for removal of Chairman indicates major shareholder and associates are looking to exert more influence over the company. (27/10/08)

BRC - Brain Resource Ltd.
Following the listing of BRC seven years ago, the market showed little interest initially in the company because of the lack of movement or commercialisation. Following July 2003, there was significant interest with doubling of the share price due to announcements of commercialisation of product and the potential collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies. However, this pressure was not maintained and prices fell to 30¢ before increasing by 50% from August to November 2004 but fell back to the 20¢ level by August 2006. There has been a 100% increase since that time associated with substantially increased revenues and profitability. However a sharp drop in October 2008 is of concern. In our view the market cap of $24 million is reasonable if a little low (prices down 28% in 2006 but up 70% in 2007 and down 42% in 2008). (28/10/08)

BTA - Biota Holdings Ltd.
At the end of February 2004, there was a 40% increase in Biota's share price on the basis of statements that Biota's Relenza might be effective in treating bird flu. Some of this was lost by September and there was another jump associated with a US grant and fund raising although much of this dissipated by December 2004. Stocks have remained sensitive to speculation since then including a jump associated with stockpiling of Relenza in Germany, the Netherlands and other countries. With two substantial fund injections and speculation, prices rose 173% in 2005, stabilised in 2006 (up 10%) and fell 24% in 2007 (due to lower than expected revenues). There has been a further fall in 2008 (now down 66%). The company has a market cap of $73 million which is reasonable after litigation with GSK was resolved and royalty projections reduced. (5/11/08)

BTC - Biotech Capital Ltd.
After relatively stable prices in the mid 40¢ range during 2004, prices fell 15% in 2005 in line with declines in the biotech sector in 2005 but recovered to their former trading band until late 2006. The company appeared to be losing momentum in late 2006 and prices declined significantly and this was partly countered by share buyback (down 7% in 2006). The decline continued in 2007 (down 20%) and in 2008 (down 69%). The company has a market cap of $8 million which is less than a third of its reported net asset backing of $29 million. The situation has reached a stage where the company is considering alternative options for moving forward including removal of pooled development fund status. (12/11/08)

BZI - BrainZ Instruments Ltd.
New Zealand company listed in December 2005 with limited revenues and limited sales. Prices rose in the first two weeks of trading by 30% but dropped to par (down 20%) in 2006. Revenues were doubling year on year so prices were expected to be maintained but there was a 65% fall in 2007 associated with concerns about company's financial position. There was a recovery in September 2007 associated with FDA clearance for equipment. Prices down 66% in 2007 with further 91% fall in 2008 to $1 million. Company announced intention to sell all assets to US Natus Medical Inc. for NZ$1.3 million in October 2008. (1/11/08)

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