Biotech 2008 P

PAA - PharmAust Ltd.
Relisting of Echo Technologies in October 2004 with emphasis on refurbished pharmaceutical facilities in Western Australia and drug discovery through subsidiaries Epichem and Mimotopes (now sold to Commonwealth Biotechnologies) as well as a 15% position in Advanced Molecular Technologies and 40% of Commonwealth Biotechnologies. Prices were relatively stable following relisting, but there has been a noticeable decline since April 2006 with a recovery in November (down 31% in 2006). The current value of $2 million for the company following fund raising indicates current vulnerability of the company. A proposal for merger with Advanced Health Group was a development depressing prices and when this did not proceed, the share price rebounded but fell 65% in 2007 due to questions about the Board and viability of the company with some shareholder revolt. This appears to have been resolved but prices have been erratic (down 52% in 2008) culminating in the manufacturing subsidiary going into voluntary administration. (26/10/08)

PAB - Patrys Ltd.
Recently established Australian company drawing together US and German technology to develop treatments for cancer and other diseases. Collaborations in place with Takeda, Astra Zeneca and Debiopharm. Company listed in July 2007 and prices rose 50% immediately but are now 75% below the prospectus price. Market cap of $15 million (down 79% in 2008). (16/11/08)

(PBO - PANBIO Limited)
The last few years have not been good for Panbio. Share prices steadily fell over 85% from $1.60 in 2002 to 16¢ in 2005 before recovering a little to 19¢ and jumping to around 30¢ in early 2006. The drop had been attributed to the increase in the value of the A$ and the costs associated with market entry in the US, although this was insufficient to explain the extent of the drop. There has been some recovery in 2006 and 2007 associated with an offer from Inverness Medical Innovations to take over the company and improving financials (shares up 24% in 2006 and up 27% in 2007). A recent announcement of a change of CEO has led to some uncertainty and prices fell 19% but then rose 27% in 2007 before the announcement of the acceptance of an offer from Inverness lifted the price 105% for the year. The company currently has a market value of $40 million and shares were suspended from trading in December following approval for the Inverness offer. Removed from ASX list in January 2008 (19/1/08)

PBP - Probiotec Limited
Ten year old company which first started with the processing of animal byproducts in the dairy industry and through acquisitions of manufacturing facilities of Pharmaction and Milton has grown into a manufacturer and distributor of over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products. After raising $17 million in an IPO, company began trading on the ASX in mid November 2006 and by the end of the year prices had risen 14% with a fall then recovery in 2007 associated with legal proceedings (up 19%). There has been a further fall, recovery and decline in 2008 associated with market downturn, a favourable outcome to legal proceedings and a recent claim on a subsidiary by Pfizer and a recent unexplained fall is of concern (down 4% in 2008 with improving financials). Market cap of company is $63 million and is trading in line with fundamentals. Development of blue sky will also add value. (12/11/08)

PBT - Prana Biotechnology Ltd.
Prana has suffered from being over promoted too soon and has endured the consequences of lack of stock market faith. The shares languished in 2003 and early 2004. However, in April 2004, as a result of promotion in the US market, the share price doubled but by July had returned to the mid 50¢ level where it stayed for the remainder of 2004 followed by a severe 70% decline in 2005 associated with problems with preparations of first lead compound due for clinical trials. At the end of 2005, there was a temporary 50% jump associated with early positive results with the second lead compound and a speculative run on the stock in July 2006 which the company then had to hose down and a further run in September which continued through into 2007. Shares rose 100% in 2006 but appear to have stabilised a little in 2007 and then declined followed by a 100% jump in December 2007 (up 29% in 2007). This was followed by a further temporary 27% surge in 2008 associated with release of positive clinical trial results (now down 29%). The company's market cap is currently $73 million, following a US funds injection of $28 million and a further injection of $15 million and with current cash reserves of $9.5 million. The situation remains uncertain, following the departure of the US-based CEO and some US investors, but current speculation indicates high expectations for the company. (14/11/08)

PCC - Probiomics Ltd.
When Probiomics, then VRI Biomedical, listed seven years ago, there was some optimism about the future together with a few carry over projects from Cortecs. After a year, when this optimism was not matched with commercial income, support for the shares disappeared and even a major change in the Board and management of the company did not halt the slide. Shares fell in 2004 but stabilised at the end of 2004 with a further 58% fall in 2005 and 27% in 2006. Continuing shareholder dissatisfaction and lack of liquidity led to Board and Management changes as well as closure of Newcastle operations (diagnostics), reduction in UNSW activities and increased focus on probiotics with an associated company name change. The company appeared to be at a very sensitive stage: it staged a recovery in mid 2006 associated with fund raising (down 10% overall in 2006) but there was a 33% fall in 2007 associated with reduced sales and a further 33% fall in 2008 with a recovery associated with a proposed fund raising then a 50% fall with announcement of proposed acquisition of Minomic International for $12 million which did not proceed (down 88% in 2008). It now has a market cap of only $1 million. (9/11/08)

(PEP - Peplin Ltd.)
In 2004, prices meandered until October when Allergan indicated that at least for the short term, they would not be continuing to develop one of Peplin's key products. This resulted in a 35% drop in prices and a subsequent drift down until positive trial results caused a temporary 20% jump in early 2005 followed by a further drift down with the rest of the market and a recent 70% jump associated with positive clinical trial results and a more gradual 40% rise since September 2006 culminating in an unexplained jump in July 2007 probably associated with the move into the US market. The company has a market cap of $193 million, following significant fund raising, which in our view is high. However, recent positive trial results and the move into the US with associated fund raising could maintain prices in FY2008 (up 30% in 2006 and up 6% in 2007). Name changed to Peplin Inc. when Peplin Ltd became wholly owned subsidiary of company and redomiciled to US. (10/1/08)

PGL - Progen Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
In 2003 Progen gained market attention with a share price increase from 50¢ in June to over $2 in September. This was followed with a more than doubling of the share price from the beginning of 2004 to October as a result of some speculation relating to clinical trials and eventual licensing. When licensing did not eventuate, shares declined in price, down 50% (39% in 2005). In 2006, prices gradually rose and with the announcement of positive Phase II trail results in mid-December 2006, prices jumped 100% with some subsequent relaxation associated with fund raising ( up 108% in 2006). Announcement of changed royalty arrangements with Medigen resulted in an increase in 2007 which was brought back to earth with a substantial capital raising which has not been without problems including recent less than favourable trial results: down 57% in 2007. There has been a further decline of 53% in the first half of 2008 and an acquisition of CellGate to expand product portfolio. There was a further 50% fall in price with announcement of discontinuation of work on anticancer compound PI-88. Market cap is now $39 million which is substantially less than the current cash holdings of the company of $75 million. Prices down 75% in 2008. New company strategy is to return some capital to shareholders, review pipeline and look for mergers and acquisitions. (14/11/08)

PLI - Peplin Inc.
Successor entity to Peplin Ltd which became wholly owned subsidiary of Peplin Inc. and therefore redomiciled to US. In 2004, prices meandered until October when Allergan indicated that at least for the short term, they would not be continuing to develop one of Peplin's key products. This resulted in a 35% drop in prices and a subsequent drift down until positive trial results caused a temporary 20% jump in early 2005 followed by a further drift down with the rest of the market and a recent 70% jump associated with positive clinical trial results and a more gradual 40% rise since September 2006 culminating in an unexplained jump in July 2007 probably associated with the move into the US market. Prices up 30% in 2006 and 6% in 2007. Name changed to Peplin Inc. from 2008 and prices fell 68% with a recent increase associated with change of Managing Director and further fund raising. The company has a market cap of $55 million. (19/11/08)

PLT - Polartechnics Ltd.
This company has had a history of over promising and as a result, has suffered the consequences of a lack of price support at various stages in its life. Revenues are still at an early stage but in our view the market cap of $6 million at end of June 2006 was a little low. Share prices fell 50% in 2004, partly associated with shareholder disappointment with the rate of commercialisation of the company's technology. Prices fell a further 75% in 2005 contributing to Board upheaval. There was a further large decline in the first half of 2006 with a sell off of a large shareholding and replacement of the Managing Director. Company announced a new commercial strategy in early FY2007 and raised further funds with more than a doubling of price but it is not clear how this will offer a future for the company: recent deals on China have led to considerable speculative lifts in prices but revenues are not meeting management projections. Shares rose 138% in late 2006 and a further 52% in 2007 to company market cap of $65 million following fund raising. The company projected substantially increased revenues in FY2008 which have not been met and achievement of the projections will determine future prices. Prices have fallen 84% in 2008 with market cap at $14 million. (20/11/08)

PNO - PharmaNet Group Ltd.
Shares in this company were subject to significant speculation in mid July 2004 on the basis of very poorly supported claims. No information on the claimed technical developments was provided and the reviewers of the technology were little known, but this aspect is now being addressed by the company. The substance associated with this company must be treated with circumspection until independent assessments can be made. As expected, prices fell following the surge and were expected to continue but there was a minor recovery between October and December 2004. Prices jumped temporarily in November 2005 with proposed backdoor listing in US but overall fell 27% in 2005 and 53% in 2006. Fund raising and a new company direction lifted prices temporarily again in 2007 (down 50% in 2007 and down 64% in 2008) but the company has a $2 million market cap indicating its vulnerability. (26/10/08)

POH - Phosphagenics Ltd.
This company, previously called Vital Capital, changed from a pooled development fund to a nutraceutical and pharmaceutical company. It has developed two Vitamin E supplement formulations which are being marketed in the US and is developing drug delivery technology. Share prices increased 50% in October-November 2004 due to international fund raising and increasing international interest. Following acquisition of remainder of Vital Health Sciences with an allotment of almost 300 million shares and substantial fund raising, the current value of the company is $50 million which is fair relative to fundamentals but credibility will only come when there is a substantial increase in revenues. There was an increase of 39% in prices in 2006 possibly associated with expectations related to clinical trials and the deal with Nestlé. Prices have declined 29% in 2007 and 69% in 2008. (7/11/08)

PRR - Prima Biomed Ltd.
Prima has never excited the market, possibly because it has set up a number of subsidiary companies originating from the same research institute and all of the technologies will take some time to reach market. Over the last few years, share prices have trended steadily downwards and fell 60% in 2004. There was a 30% increase in October/November 2004 associated with Board changes, but this was wiped out at the end of the year when prices fell. Prices fell 29% in 2005 and 46% in 2006 but there was a rise in early 2007 due to favourable results from an early clinical trial on CVAC technology (down 58% in 2007 due to speculation over director associated share sell off). The market cap of $2 million follows fund raising and the company is repositioning itself for a new business or change of direction with departure of Executive Chairman. Prices down 62% in 2008. (1/11/08)

(PSD - Psivida Ltd.)
Shares in this company were relatively dormant until August 2003 when they doubled to the 50¢-60¢ range based on a lift in the overall market combined with a number of announcements of collaborations. The price further increased to $1 in early 2004 and $1.24 in May 2004, followed by a hiatus around $1 and a further jump to around $1.30 from October 2004 associated with early clinical trials in Singapore before returning to the $1 level by January 2005. However, significant commercial revenue has been slow in coming. Based purely on fundamentals, we expected some fall in share price during 2005 (down 43%). The acquisition of Control Delivery Systems offered the opportunity to put revenue meat on Psivida's silicon bones but we still felt that the market cap of the company of $201 million in June 2006 was not supported by fundamentals and reflected high expectations for the company. In July 2006, there was a sharp unexplained fall in the share price and prices fell 65% in 2006. There was a temporary revival in 2007 put prices then fell 63% to a market cap of $66 million following fund raising (several rounds). Significant write down of intellectual property indicates the commercial outlook of the company has changed somewhat although a recent deal with Pfizer retains some blue sky supported by substantial revenue inflows. Prices have risen then fallen in 2008 with sale of subsidiary pSiNutria and again risen with Pfizer payments (market cap $68 million up 3%). Company reincorporation in US completed by end of June 2008. Removed from ASX list 20 June 2008. (20/6/08)

(PSV - Perseverance Corporation Ltd.)
This is primarily a gold mining company which is using biotechnology to assist in ore treatment and extraction. The value of the company is influenced more by gold prices than any biotechnology or biocommercial matter. Proposal for merger with Canadian gold and copper miner Northgate Minerals is proceeding and shares have been suspended prior to takover. (4/2/08)

PVA - Psivida Corp.
Previously Psivida Ltd an Australian company was reincorporated in the US in June 2008. Company has had a patchy performace since its initial establishment. Company had market cap of $201 million in June 2006 but there has been a significant fall in value since then. Since reincorporation, shares have fallen 66% and company has market cap of $24 million. (19/11/08)

PXL - Proteome Systems Ltd.
Company proved itself before listing but there were problems in company value on listing followed by a dramatic fall on list price. The company has sufficient depth and geographic spread to support significant value and we would have expected some price rise in the short term but this did not happen and up to mid June 2005, prices declined over 80% since listing and 71% in the first half of 2005. However the announcement at Bio2005 of funding from Gates Foundation for a rapid tuberculosis test resulted in a 150% jump in the share price with a subsequent slow decline and a recent recovery. The company has a market cap of $12 million which is reasonable (prices even in 2006, down 28% in 2007 and down 76% in 2008). The company has moved to reduce costs and increase its international marketing profile to drive value higher and has changed top management. It has also exited therapeutic development and is now concentrating on diagnostics alone. There are signs that this is having some effect. Name changed to Tyrian Diagnostics (ASX:TDX) in November 2008. (18/11/08)

PXS - Pharmaxis Ltd.
Company listed in November 2003 after which shares dipped but are now over 700% up on the launch price. Prices increased 174% in 2005, 43% in 2006 and 42% in 2007 but have fallen 64% in 2008. The market cap of the company is $265 million ($106 million in cash reserves) which in our view is a little high for this early stage of the commercialisation cycle and we expect share prices to level off during FY2009. However, because of a number of issues including the aggressive push to commercialisation and the recent global fund raising, speculation could cause prices to rise further or at least maintain current levels. There was a surge in price associated with positive clinical trial results and additional funds were raised in association with this. However the uncertainties on world stock exchanges and delays in critical clinical trials have affected prices which fell 34% and recovered but are down 68% in 2008 following publication of improving year end results and broader problems on the stock market. (14/11/08)

PYC - Phylogica Ltd.
Drug discovery company which listed at the end of March 2005 at a premium of 30%, and retained this value through 2005. The company was promoted at a time of downturn in the sector and it was reasonable to expect that prices would decline once initial euphoria had dissipated. In 2006, the shares of the company rose, fell then recovered and rose 88% overall associated with heightened expectations for company developments and new indications. This continued initially into 2007 but with some subsequent fall in prices due to lack of noticeable progress. This resulted in decision to change CEOs at the end of the year. We consider that longer term share trends will be similar to current levels: current market cap of $6 million is reasonable (down 60% in 2007 and down 76% in 2008). (17/11/08)

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